"Hard to believe it’s less than a fortnight until the headline 'Theresa May calls snap general election after England brings football home' is running on news websites," joked The Guardian's Jim Waterson last night on Twitter. Well, you wouldn't put it past her, such is the moribund state of her premiership and, moreover, such is the state of English euphoria after the national football team won its first penalty shootout in 22 years.
England's success in Moscow - a moral victory as much as an actual victory - is a big deal...even if it shouldn’t be. After all, England are just out of the Round of 16 and into only their fourth quarter-final since 1986. Such is the paucity of English success at World Cups and the Euros that we'll take rare success in the first knockout game as the confirming sign of changing fortunes. As premature as crowds blocking streets in Shoreditch, Croydon and elsewhere last night were in chanting "Football's coming home", you can't deny the need to celebrate, more out of relief than anything else.
However, to state the obvious, and whilst not wishing to rain on the parade (and at risk of being called a "waxwork" by Danny Baker for continuing to guard against getting carried away), we’re not done yet. Saturday's quarter-final against Sweden won't be the ordeal of cynical play as Colombia offered last night, but it will be robust. And here's why we need to be cautious: England were terrific last night in the first half, taking the game decisively to Colombia. They were particularly pleasing at the back, building through the middle and creating attacking momentum for Kane, Sterling and Alli in particular. But as the second half wore on, England once again started to be opened up. This was a trait of their first three games (even while drubbing Panama, they conceded late in the game), and continued last night when Yerry Mina equalised in the third minute of stoppage time. Do that again against Sweden, and another penalty shootout awaits.
Technically, England still have a lot to do to be regarded as a real threat in this World Cup. But before you react with accusations of treason, I do believe that momentum is carrying them on. Confidence is an unbelievable asset for this young team. Winning in regular time alone would have done the job to boost Gareth Southgate's players, but winning a penalty shootout - for so long the source of all our pain - will have washed through the England camp like a potion. On another day, Colombia would have won that shootout: on another day still, it could be England. Or Colombia again. Who knows. Penalties are a lottery, and that’s what makes them such an excruciating nightmare, but also wildly entertaining and still the only way to settle these fixtures if goals in open play can’t do it.
Much of why England are in this position is down to Southgate and his assistant Steve Holland, and their psychological management as much as their tactical nouse. Their calm, intelligent stewardship of England's young stars probably manifested itself most strongly in that penalty torture. Calm heads prevailed. Southgate, in particular, deserves credit for imparting his own torrid experience at Wembley in 1996. "We're trying to write our own history, and I've talked to the players about that. They write their own stories. We don't have to be bowed by the pressure of the past," he said, reflectively, after last night's result.
However, England do have to face the pressure of the future. The standard line is that they have to now focus on the next game, not dwell on the last (you know, "there are no easy games"). They may be two games from the final, but that next one will be every bit a test of this young England team. Sweden aren't in the quarter-final by default. I'm dancing on the head of a pin, I know. I'd love to gush with unconditional, just-because enthusiasm, but I'm just too paranoid. Remember Kevin Keegan, co-commentating for ITV in the 1998 World Cup when England played Romania in the group stage? "There's only one team that can win this now, and that's England," he told Brian Moore. Five minutes later, Dan Petrescu scored Romania's winner. These things are so easily jinxed.
Southgate's gamble on taking the route more favourable may, now, be seen to have paid off, but only so far. Sweden awaits and beyond that, potentially, Russia or Croatia. There are no easy games, but there's no harm enjoying the ride as we get through them.
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