*smug face

It’s not often I get to say this, but I was right. Yesterday I opined that England fans should not get carried away with thoughts of 1966 and all that after just two games of the 2018 World Cup, even if they were two wins out of two.

And thus it was proven in last night’s Group G tie between, effectively, the England and Belgium B-teams. It would be unfair to say Gareth Southgate’s players didn’t want to win it, but the eight changes he made removed much of the creativity that had made England's first two games such reasons for optimism. Not that we should now be instantly pessimistic, as some commentators appear to have lapsed back into, but there is no use ignoring that last night's somewhat dead rubber halted the momentum.

But, again, we're talking relatives. Belgium rested their best players, too, and clearly their indifference towards adding to the yellow card tally suggested that Roberto Martinez was also angling for a result that would see them take the path less troubling in the Round of 16. In a sense, Adnan Januzaj's stunning strike for Belgium was a setback, and Martinez's muted response said as much. What a strange game. And what a poor one, too. Arguably its most entertaining moment was Michy Batshuayi's celebration of the Belgium goal, in which he whacked the ball at an England goalpost only for it to comically rebound into his face. Typically, as football's funniest representative on Twitter, Batshuayi was wonderfully self-effacing online amid a torrent of trollery.

As for England, I'm still not fully decided as to whether Southgate's squad rotation was a good thing or a bad thing. On the plus side, his understudies gained valuable pitch time, and he saved any needless injuries or suspensions by resting his stars. On the downside, Southgate exposed the lack of real creative depth in his squad: most toiled without any noticeable impact up front; Rashford was only fitfully effective and Vardy largely redundant; even the impressive Loftus-Cheek faded from influence as the game wore on; 19-year-old Trent Alexander-Arnold showed remarkable maturity, but too much was placed on him to take set-pieces, where his delivery was poor.

At the end of the day, there were no real dramas, and it's hard to imagine that the 1-0 defeat will impact the high spirits in the England camp. And, yes, there is that group runners-up prize of, potentially, a more favourable route to the latter stages of the tournament. But even if coming second in Group G means that England have an extra day to prepare for their knockout game on Tuesday, they'll be playing a lively Colombia. Their form alone will pose a big question as to whether the England and Belgium managers' gamble was worth it. Progress past Japan on Monday will mean Belgium could, potentially, meet Brazil in the quarter-finals. A penny for your thoughts, Roberto?

Inevitably, sections of the press have laid into Southgate, such is the fickle nature of the British media. But then their argument is usually that they have to reflect their readership. The 'momentum' of success with England's first two games meant that pubs were full, the sun was shining and there was a feelgood factor in the air. People even forgot about world issues like Brexit and Trump for a few days. Good times. Again, though, perspective.

England's record at this World Cup has been played three, won two, lost one (in a game that arguably didn't matter). The team's chief scorer is still, currently, Golden Boot candidate. He'll want to maintain that status on Tuesday against Colombia, and those who were benched last night will, rather than being frustrated by England's apparent arrested development, will be champing at the bit to resume where they left off against Panama.

The intelligent, likeable Southgate has talked about long-term progress - not an ambitious tilt at the title - but the transformation of England from a bunch of overpaid egos into a world footballing side to be respected. That will take time, but you can't help feeling that, even if England go out to Colombia on Tuesday, progress will have been made. That might sound a little defeatist - of course I'd love England to go all the way - but their nadir, that awful game in Marseille against Iceland, isn't so distant in the mind that we can't extract a sense of where Southgate is having to come from. Like I said yesterday, no one should get carried away, and that means that what happened last night, and what will happen on Tuesday night and beyond, needs to be put into a broader context. That, in England terms, is a luxury, and one that Southgate should revel in.

Calm down, dear!

Exactly eight years ago today I made my debut as a blogger. And it wasn’t pretty. The day before, England had been beaten 4-1 by Germany (remember them?) in the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. I’d actually missed the first half - including Lampard’s criminally disallowed goal - of that second-round match in Bloemfontein because my then girlfriend and I had been in the Channel Tunnel on our way back to the Netherlands from a wedding in London. On emerging into the Calais sunlight, I turned on the car radio. And then turned it off again. We spent the next three hours in silence. The next day I unloaded into the blogosphere for the first time. A thousand words of invective and the gratuitous use of schadenfreude was involved.

This is what England performances do to you. Which is why I’m not getting carried away this time around. Yes, it’s fantastic that England are through to next week's quarter-finals without drama. Yes, the momentum of two wins-out-of-two is exactly what they need. Yes, the way in which they ruthlessly dispatched the poorly-disciplined Panama was a joy to behold on a glorious, sunny Sunday lunchtime back home in England.

But let’s calm down a tad. England have played only the two games. Even if they are beaten by Belgium tonight (and will go through, anyway), tougher challenges await. But even before considering them, thoughts of taking it easy - job done - against the Belgians should be struck far from view. It will clearly be a tough game against, arguably, tournament dark horses, but not one without familiarity, given the number of Premier League teammates and opponents the England players will be facing, and given the intimate knowledge Belgian coach Roberto Martinez and his assistent Thierry Henry have of the England squad. Gareth Southgate and indeed his No.2, Steve Holland, can draw on their own insider understanding of how Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Romalu Lukaku, Thibaut Courtois and others work week in, week out. Even if Gary Cahill doesn’t play, he’ll have invaluable intelligence on playing in front of Courtois and behind Hazard. Likewise Raheem Sterling, playing alongside De Bruyne in the Manchester City attack. That's assuming that Martinez plays his strongest side.

Even if he doesn't, Belgium won't be any easier to play, but tonight's tie will be the nearest to a ‘business as usual’ game that England will take part in during this World Cup. And if they play well, no matter what the actual scoreline, they’ll go into the knockout stage feeling good about themselves, and with opponents genuinely respecting them. For once. In principle, England will go into the Round of 16 with momentum on their side. The spirit in camp is, it would appear high, and the confidence galvanised by that 6-1 destruction of Panama will have permeated through the entire squad.

"There are no easy games," I heard Harry Kane slip into his post-match interview on Sunday, and while this is the most hackneyed of footballer cliches, he is, of course, correct. Whether England face Japan, Senegal or Colombia in the next round, if they progress they'll still be at the tender mercy of knockout stage fate (winning Group G could see England face Mexico or Brazil in the quarter-finals, Uruguay, Portugal, France or Argentina in the semis, with Sweden/Switzerland and Spain/Russia/Croatia/Denmark ahead should they end the group stage as runners-up).

Football is mad, unpredictable even. Who’d have expected Germany, the reigning world champions, to go out at the group stage yesterday, or Argentina to struggle like they did against Iceland on the opening weekend? Well, they did, and that should give both heart and a warning to England fans already singing "Football's coming home" after just two games. It could be, but then our hopes have been dashed too many times before to make getting them up this time - for now - even if the results against Tunisia and Panama have put a timely pep in the nation's step. As the highly likeable Southgate has warned, there is a long way to go before quarter- and semi-finals should be thought about. By all means dream, but don't lose the plot.

Last Sunday was a special day. Irrespective of what happens next, it was a joy to watch England play the way they did against Panama. The fluidity and indifference towards the Central Americans’ bad behaviour was refreshing. Kane’s composure in front of goal, Lingard’s endeavour, and indeed the entire team effort - up until Panama’s consolation goal - was as good I’ve seen England play in 22 years, not since that Britpop-fuelled, sunshine-infused run in Euro '96. But I won't get carried away. It's nice, though, to feel good for a change. Let's hope it lasts.

Are we in or out of Europe?

So this is the eve of an event that could have a profound effect on Europe, that will place the continent in sharp focus, make and break careers, and will have a measurable impact on the economy.

But enough about the Brexit debate, tomorrow night Euro 2016 kicks off, here in France. This will be the third time I've been living in a European Championships host nation - the previous two being Euro '96 (England) and Euro 2000 (the northern half of Netherlands & Belgium). The contrast, however, couldn't be any different.

In 1996, England was awash with the Cool Britannia spirit and fuelled by Britpop. We English were beside ourselves with excitement at hosting the first major football tournament since the 1966 World Cup, and we all knew how that turned out for us. However, if we needed a reminder, there was Three Lions, the song written by David Baddiel and Frank Skinner with Ian Broudie of The Lightning Seeds, with its bittersweet refrain of "Thirty years of hurt".

Everywhere you went, people were singing "It's coming home, it's coming home - football's coming home!". A new national anthem was born, a replacement for God Save The Queen (not the Pistols' version) and an alternative to Land Of Hope And Glory and all those blood-pumpers by Elgar at The Proms. And it fitted right into the cadence of intrinsically English sounds at the time by Blur, Oasis, Pulp and others.

Euro '96 was a magical time. As magical as the 1990 World Cup in Italy had been - even with a similar outcome for the Lions. In 1996 the sun shone and England were on a high. Though their opening game against Switzerland was an unexpected 1-1 stumble, there was that piece of Paul Gascoigne magic in the 2-0 win over Scotland that followed. Then came the 4-1 demolition of the Dutch which came next, along with the abiding memory of away fans clad in their customary luminous orange attire partying throughout London with home fans. There was a lot of love going on. And then England's quarter-final with Spain, one of the fancied teams, which ended 0-0 and had to be decided on penalties, not England's strongest point. Except they won it by four strikes to two and went on to yet another semi-final with Germany. Which they lost on penalties, obviously.

The reason I drag all this up is that the contrast between England in 1996 and France 20 years later couldn't be greater. Well, I say France, but I can only really speak for Paris. But if the French capital is anything to go by, I'm not seeing much excitement here. Yes, there are official flags and banners hanging from lamposts and the enormous Fan Zone is up in the Champ de Mars park behind the Eiffel Tower, but there is no obvious fervour, no cars driving around bearing patriotic penants - nothing to really indicate that Europe's 24 top teams (which, surely, must be almost all of them...) are here for at least the next two weeks, if not the tournament's duration.

Maybe it is a consequence of the gloom I posted about on Monday: the Seine floodwaters may have receded, but the strikes go on, including industrial action by refuse workers leading to piles of uncollected rubbish on the streets of Paris. Coupled with the very real threat of a terror attack or attacks (with fears nuanced heavily by the fact that the national stadium, the Stade De France, was targeted by suicide bombers on November 13), people just don't seem to be enthusing about arguably the world's second most prestigious international football tournament taking place on home soil.

Perhaps it's simply nonchalance, the local sangfroid you grow used to, rubbing off on me. Perhaps it's the weariness we all feel after months of scandal and the foul taste international football administration has left in our mouths. But, either way, Iam yet to succumb to the child-on-Christmas-Eve giddyness I would normally possess the day befor a big tournament. I haven't spent hours studying a free newspaper wallchart, and dutifully transplanting all the dates into my calendar; I'm not au fait with all ten venues; and given that a staggering quarter of the total players at Euro 2016 play in the Premier League, I've failed to be that bothered by the traditional mystique of not knowing who-is-who that accompanies watching nationalities compete with each other.

The sense of local malaise notwithstanding, perhaps my jadedness comes from the fact that, as an Englishman, I've grown used to disappointment. "30 years of hurt" was achingly brutal 20 years ago. When the 50th anniversary of Bobby Moore lifting the gleaming Jules Rimet trophy comes around on July 30 this year, it will be even more painful that, potentially, half a century will have passed without England progressing further than a semi-final in either the Euros or a World Cup.

The closest we've come are two semi-final penalty shootouts. We have, to be honest, and to borrow from José Mourinho, become a specialist in failure. Even that damn brass band accompanying every England match still insists on playing the theme from The Great Escape, which may have been one of the finest films made about the Second World War, but also depicts a brave but ultimately doomed attempt to break out of a German POW camp (76 escaped, 73 were captured or which 50 were shot...). Stirring as the music is, there's a heavy irony to its use in getting crowds going.

It is regularly pointed out that the primary source of our angst may be that we're just not as good as we'd like to think we are, that just because the Premier League is the world's most popular - and lucrative - football league doesn't mean that the English national team can match it. Not for nothing the current European champions, Spain, have such a player foothold in the English top-tier. The debates rage on message boards and in radio phone-ins about the impact of foreign players and coaches on England's chances at a national level (and not just England - it's a debate in other national leagues too).

When you look at England's tournament history since 1966, it really isn't that good. For the nation that invented association football and is, along with Scotland, the joint oldest national team in the world, for every euphoric Italia '90 and Euro '96 there are the ignominious appearances, disappearances and even no-shows at World Cups and Euros. Compare this to the Germans, who've reached 13 finals at either World Cup or European level. Compare this, too, with Spain who've won the European title three times, France twice, and even the Italians, Czechs, Dutch, Danish and Greeks have each won one European Championship trophy since England last touched silverware.

We've been there before, too, with talk of a "golden generation". Even when that illustrious club of gifted young pups from Manchester United were forming the core of the England side, success was elusive. So what this time? No one is going to overdo it. Roy Hodgson does have in his squad an emerging force of prospects - like Kane, Alli, Sterling and Rashford, along with Jamie Vardy, fresh from his Player of the Year exploits at Leicester. But will these relative lion cubs be good enough on the European stage? Talent they have, but not the experience. And, perhaps the stamina, after another gruelling domestic season, though that is too often an excuse rather than an explanation. England might have some enticing options up front, but there's a thinness to their defensive capabilities that only suggests vulnerability.

In the end, the jaded England fan will take it as it comes. We've been disappointed before and we'll be disappointed again, so there's no point pinning even the most optimistic patriotism on this time. Even if we're all surprised but what actually transpires.